I must confess that I have no experience with federal probation officers. No sane attorney will give you a guarantee that you won't have a problem. Are you really willing to take a chance like this? It's around a twenty (20) mile distance right? Buses and/or trains aren't an option? It would probably cost you less to pursue either option than to pay for gasoline for the borrowed car.
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18 USC 3583(b) authorizes a district court, if it finds by a preponderance of the evidence that a defendant has violated his or her term of supervised release, to impose a term of imprisonment of not more than 5 years if the offense of *conviction* is a Class A or B felony; 3 years if a C or D; and 1 year if an E or misdemeanor. However, the policy statements in Chapter 7 of the US Sentencing Guidelines are based on the grade of *violation* in addition to the class of felony of the offense of conviction, and recommend much more lenient punishment than the statute allows. While I completely understand and appreciate your dilemma, I strongly recommend that you not take the chance. Based on your recently having begun your term of supervised release, there are judges that would not hesitate to sentence you to another significant term of imprisonment with absolutely no regard for your reason for violating.
Joshua Sabert Lowther, Esq.
NATIONAL FEDERAL DEFENSE GROUP
You should not bank on there being no consequences for driving without a license. It is not unusual to revoke for not following the directions of the PO, even with no new criminal conduct. Driving without a license on the bet that you won't be revoked is not a good strategy.
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If you are being supervised in the Eastern District of California, it is my firm opinion that the Probation Office will file a petition to revoke or modify your conditions of supervised release if you are arrested for driving related misdemeanor.