Dad loses because the court will go with the illusion that mom is the primary caretaker. The mother took the proper steps to give the impression that she has the child. Dad allowed the removal because he "took no action".
Unfortunately, it is generally quite meaningless to guess "what the chances are" of an outcome of a court proceeding. There are two reasons for this:
First, we don't know enough about the case. All we know is what you've written here, and presumably, the other person involved would give a very different version of events than you would. A judge hearing a case hears both sides, and tries to give equal weight to both. The less information one has about a case, the harder it is to predict what will happen - and all we know here is what you've written.
Second - single-event probabilities are arguably logically meaningless. Consider this: Suppose I said you have a 75% chance of winning the case. Would you feel reassured? And, suppose I said that, and you lost. Would I have been wrong? Probabilities are meaningful only when you are considering a lot of similar events - but legal cases are all so different that it's hard to draw valid comparisons.
Conventional wisdom tells us that fathers face an uphill battle in child custody cases, due to long-standing sexist prejudices that hold that women are - or should be - the parents primarily responsible for child care. And that is often how cases turn out - more or less often, depending on what part of the country you're in - but it's not predetermined.
To best increase your chances in a court case, you should consult in private with an attorney in your area. I realize that isn't the most helpful advice, but I do believe it's the best.
Please read the following notice: <br> <br> Jay Bodzin is licensed to practice law in the State of Oregon and the Federal District of Oregon, and cannot give advice about the laws of other jurisdictions. All comments on this site are intended for informational purposes only, and do not constitute legal advice or create an attorney-client relationship. No posts or comments on this site are in any way confidential. Each case is unique. You are advised to have counsel at all stages of any legal proceeding, and to speak with your own lawyer in private to get advice about your specific situation. <br> <br> Jay Bodzin<br> Bodzin Donnelly Mockrin & Slavin, LLP<br> 2029 SE Jefferson Street, Suite 101, Milwaukie, OR 97222<br> <br> Telephone: 503-227-0965<br> Facsimile: 503-345-0926<br> Email: email@example.com<br> Online: www.bodzindonnelly.com
There are no guarantees in any hearing and it would be useless to predict with only the facts available. If you think it is the best iinterest of your child to be in your custody, you should fight for that. You will have a better chance if you consult an attorney.