It is not likely that they will pursue charges if they indicated they wouldn't and they sent a civil demand. Jail would have been more likely if they would have taken you in cuffs right away. As far as order, the police would actually write the report from the victim's statement, and then submit it to the county to "press charges" against you in juvenile court, so the police would know first. You will probably be off probation before any appearance if they do start.
Anything is possible regarding your probation, so I can't really speculate. It could be that the juvenile court magistrate doesn't find out at all.
There's a surefire way to stay out of jail though: stop breaking the law intentionally, and don't hang out with bad kids.
Clark County, Nevada practitioner.
Generally, the store is more interested in getting the property back or reimbursed. Under the circumstances you described, it does not appear the store is going to pursue charges so there would be no probation violation. However, you may want seek some assurances before paying the demand. Otherwise, the prosecutor may be able to utilize any statements you make accompanying the demand as evidence in criminal court.
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There are statutory damages for shoplifting, which, if I recall correctly, are the cost of the item and $100-$250. There is also the possibility of attorney fees being awarded. Settling for $100 might not be a bad option, and you can let them know you need to hold off until your probation is concluded to agree to anything in writing. This should take care of civil liability and protect your probation status.