The judge is most likely correct but only the sheriff's department determines who is released early, and even they could not give you an exact release date.
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Ten percent would be the end of the month of June. However, there is no way of knowing for certain if he would be released since that is only an estimate. You are looking for a definite date and unfortunately no one can provide that to you. I sympathize as this uncertainty is difficult for both you and him.
This is not intended as individual legal advice and there is no attorney client relationship established by this answer. It is advisable that you seek individualized legal assistance. This is not a substitute for hiring an attorney.
The percentage person at the jail will determine when he will be released. The percentage is computed often sometimes on a daily basis. So it really depends on the total population. The judge has no say in the matter, the judge can only estimate it like the rest of us. I would guess sometime between 30 to 60 days would be more realistic.
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