You already know the answer to your question, but I think you are looking for what you know you can't get - prediction.
It is not a matter of statistics. Each case is different. Simply stating "material points" and "evidence both material and circumstantial" (which doesn't even make sense, sorry.... I think you mean direct evidence and circumstantial evidence) is not meaningful to us. Evaluating the strength of the case cannot be done on such vague terms. Details absolutely matter. There are far too many factors which come into play, and which facts are circumstantial and which are direct make a huge difference.
Each jury is different. Conviction requires unanimity of 12 jurors. The fact is, a guilty verdict can be prevented by even ONE jurors conscientious decision to vote not guilty. How in the world can we know the conscience of every juror? I recall one case I had which first resulted in a hung jury because of ONE juror, and I got a unanimous not guilty verdict in the re-trial. So, it went from all jurors except one against my client to all jurors for not guilty.
As lawyers, we try to assess our local jury pool. We also have the opportunity to question prospective jurors before trial. This is a skill which varies in quality among lawyers, so your choice of lawyer can be critical. Within a pool, there is a lot of variance, so it is mere guesswork. In Harris County, the pool is gigantic, so you don't know what you'll get.
Some cases seems strong, and a jury may say not guilty. A weak case may turn into a conviction. I don't know how any attorney can answer your question with what you want: "straight opinion".
Bottom line: instead of trying to gauge what your theoretical chances may be, hire the absolute best lawyer you can, and that will give you your best chance of success.
If you or someone close to you has been charged, it's natural to want some assurance - if not just some predictability. This is especially true in the tough position of considering a plea agreement and weighing the risks of going to trial. Unfortunately, though, your question is impossible to answer. There are far too many variables to list and explain here.
If you are in this predicament and facing such decisions, searching on-line for assurance or predictability via statistics or general legal information will drive you absolutely nuts. A very confidential and personal dialogue with your attorney is what you need.
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There is no way to know for sure. No one can tell you ahead of time what can happen. However, most lawyers will be able to give you a good idea about the possible outcome of your trial based on their experience, the nature of the charge, your criminal history, etc.
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Prosecutors rarely enjoy trying cases to juries they believe they will lose. Consequently, prosecutors will typically choose the best cases to try and plead the others. Under this scenario, cases pursued by the government in jury trials usually win. However, we are making many assumptions to reach this conclusion. Take the advice of the other lawyers and rely upon the trial lawyer's opinion. They know the facts and law much better than us.
It depends a lot on who your lawyer is. It also depends on who the lawyer for the State is. Then, it depends on the parties (the complainant and the defendant). How old is each person? What is the nature of the relationship? What is the nature of the accusation? Also, it depends on the quality and context of the evidence. Finally, it depends on the biggest unknown variable: the jury panel that is brought to court that day.
Your question is a fair one. But, it's impossible to answer with so little information. It's like asking a bookie to handicap football games, without telling him which teams, or what players, or where the game is being played.
What is your theory of the case? And what is the evidence. No lawyer who knows anything about criminal defense could give you an accurate estimate without knowing more. Is your defense consent? If so, what evidence can you present that the sex act was consensual? Is your defense that the accuser is lying? What evidence do you have of her making up the rape claim? Is your defense mistaken identification? Is there DNA evidence, eye witness testimony, etc.? Go see a lawyer and talk over the facts of your case. Don't decide what to do based on anyone's estimate of what a jury would do in a rape case generally. Juries will acquit when the evidence is not there to convict.