The amount of time a state prisoner has to serve before parole is determined by the State Board of Pardons and Paroles. The Board uses a rating system (called the GRID) that factors in everything from crime severity to the potential parolee's criminal history in determing when parole will be offered. Without the answer to the GRID questions, it is hard to estimate the time he would have to serve. That being said, for non-violent offenses and not too significant criminal backgrounds, a third of the time is not a "educated guess". An attorney to help negotiate the punishment for failure to follow the probation rules would be very helpful. For example, as described in your question, it was unclear whether he had completed the suspended portion of his sentence. If so, the violations of probation that you describe would not generally allow for a maximum revocation. They look like technical vilations that would only be a two year maximum.