Violations will turn into a MTR if the PO is aware of it and chooses to turn it over. If you're paying through a civil collection agency you're probably safe but why would you risk ruining felony probation and jail time for theft?
When you say "ticket," I assume you mean a charge of a Class C misdemeanor theft. If you can get the charge dismissed because you are paying the merchant, DO IT NOW.
Any criminal activity is cause for Judge to revoke your probation and sentence you to prison if they want to. If your P.O. doesn't turn you in or doesn't find out about it because its on a municipal level, then, great. Its unlikely the Court will find out about it and move to adjudicate the original felony.
If the P.O does find out about the theft and does turn you in and request you be adjudicated, then you still have hope. If you can explain to the Judge (through your attorney is best) that this was the only violation of probation, there was a misunderstanding, you are taking care of it, and explain that prison is the worst place for you to be because of you obligations to your family, etc., then the Judge may just give you more conditions of probation but dismiss the motion to adjudicate.
The terms of your probation probably require you to report any contacts with law enforcement to your probation officer, and any arrests within 24 hours. Follow the rules of your probation.
As far as what may happen, it depends on how else you have been doing on probation and the judge's rules. It could be anything from a motion to revoke your probation to jail therapy as you mention. Make sure you have completed everything possible on your probation.
And, if you get away with this - get smart and cut out the law violations. A law violation is the worst kind of violation you can have while on probation and absoutely NOT worth it.
Although I have answered the question to try to help you, you should consult with a lawyer in your area in person on the matter. In addition, my answer does not establish an attorney-client relationship between us.