It is unclear exactly what your question is. Feel free to clarify in the comment section below and I'd be happy to provide a respons/suggestion/opinion.
What do you mean by "fed kick out"?
You state that he did "almost" everything he was trying to do - that indicates he failed to complete the program. You state "compared to other times" - that indicates he has failed the program in the past. Is this the case? How many times has he been offered diversion in the past? Was he charged with another crime in addition to simple possession that would disqualify him from Prop 36? Is his case still pending in Court?
A "fed kick" refers to an early release due to jail overcrowding based on a cap on the inmate population imposed by federal court order. Most jails in Califorina are operating under such a court order. (I must say, I happen to be the lawyer who filed the jail overcrowding lawsuit in Santa Barbara in 1981-- thirty years ago -- and we are still appearing on the case. It is set for another hearing next month.)
No one from Riverside has answered tha question so I thought i would explain the term.
Usually, lawyers will answer this question as follows: there is no way to know if an inmate will serve less than his full sentence due to overcrowding. Even if everyone seems to be getting out early, if there is not an aovercrowding issue or a new alternative sentence procedure is enacted, there could be no orders for early release. Even if some are getting out, the release system is often based on a matrix giving weight to certain offenses over others.
Bottom line, he should talk to his lawyer and see if he can get a bit of an idea who is getting out early and how early. Good luck!
This is not legal advice. In order to get legal advice, you need to retain a lawyer and establish an attorney client relationship. So, talk to your lawyer! [I am licensed to practice law in the state of California and am admitted to the federal courts in California, Washington D.C., the Ninth Circuit, the U.S. Supreme Court and a number of other federal Circuit and District courts. For legal advice, you need to retain a lawyer in the jurisdiction in which the matter is pending.]