You need to hire an attorney to handle this. An attorney with experience practicing in your court may be able to propose an alternative plan he knows the judge will be comfortable with. State jail time is day-for-day (with a small amount of education credit now available). If you get sentenced to state jail, you should plan to do all of the time.
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The general situation you set out is pretty common in San Angelo. Of course, the details of each probationer's situation are different, and that is why a lawyer can't give you specific advice about your situation on avvo.
However, the way things work here in San Angelo, it is fairly difficult to get probation to reconsider what they want. Probation usually responds by sending the case to the DA's office, and that can lead to an MTR.
If you do not want to do what probation wants you to do, the best approach I have found in San Angelo is to get an attorney to try to head off the MTR at the DA's office. Of course, since there's not an MTR case pending yet, you have to get your own lawyer to try to head off the MTR if that's how you want to go.
What the result would be depends on all the details of your situation. I have learned over many years of defense practice that a lawyer needs to get a really good picture of the probationer's situation before going to the DA's office in a case like you describe.
My experience is that it generally makes matters worse to just keep arguing with the probation officer.
For more information about the criminal justice system generally, you may want to see my firm's website, http://www.epjlaw.com.
Answers on Avvo are for general information purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal advice. No attorney / client relationship is created by providing this answer. For specific advice about your situation, you should consult a competent attorney of your choosing.
You need an attorney to deal with the specific facts of your case and negotiate on your behalf. The only possible answer to your question is maybe. Maybe you will have to do 730 days in state jail.
Any answers posted to questions posed as hypothetical or with specific fact, do not create an attorney-client relationship.