Burglary in the 3rd Degree is a Class 4 Felony in AZ. A first time felony offender can expect anywhere between 1 year (mitigated) to 3.75 years (aggravated).
MCAO is now offering special fast track programs. If you take a plea early, you may get a really mitigated sentence. The hope for probation will be up to the prosecutor, judge, and your APO.