Yikes, that's really not possible to predict with any accuracy without knowing a lot more about his case. That said, don't add anything else here!
Seriously, convince him not to do this! While there is nothing technically unethical about telling someone how much time they might spend in prison for committing a crime or violating probation hypothetically, as lawyers, we are not in the business of helping people do so. Your friend simply should not do this. Period.
Assume that he will spend a lot of time in prison especially if he's just wantonly violating his probation for the hell of it. It there is good reason to leave the state (e.g. Potentially dying child needs parent's help in another state) he should inform his attorney, probation officer, and the court, and see what can be worked out. But he should act in good faith according to the terms of his probation.
Dear Asker: This answer is not legal advice, and I am not your attorney. But if you want me to be, I'm a phone call away: (503) 227-0965.
As an Attorney and former Probation Officer, I strongly urge this person NOT to abscond probation. This person is opening themselves up for a whole lot of trouble and will likely get caught. The suspended sentence will likely be revoked and that person will do that time in prison instead of probation. He or she should talk with the probation officer and look into options.
Absconding is a bad idea. He just needs to face whatever probation violations he's already committed and just work through it. No attorney can ethically advise a client to flee a jurisdiction or evade a court order or sentence.
That said I can give you a ballpark figure of 6 months jail to up to 30 months prison. Where he lands between those two extremes will depend on some details that I don't have, but I can help you figure it out using the following information.
First, look at Oregon's administrative rule governing felony revocation sentencing, OAR 213-010-0001, which can be found here:
In combination with the Oregon sentencing guidelines which can be found here:
Since we know Attempted Assault II has a crime seriousness rating of a 6 we know that his presumptive revocation sentence is defined by the boxes in row 6. So ignore the other rows.
The short version is: If at the time of conviction his criminal history score was an F or less, meaning his record included two or three adult convictions for non-person felonies (or less) but no adult conviction or juvenile adjudication for a person felony (i.e., his grid coordinates were in the yellow boxes), then his presumptive revocation sentence is 6 months.
If his record at the time he was convicted of Attempted Assault II was worse than that (i.e., his grid coordinates were outside the yellow box), then his sentence will be presumptive sentence per the sentencing guidelines based on his criminal history score at the time. That's regardless of whether any of his convictions were later vacated, reversed, set aside, pardoned, etc. See State v. Anderson, 243 Or.App. 222, 258 P.3d 1244 (Or. App., 2011).
Since Attempted Assault II is a C felony with a crime seriousness rating of a 6 the maximum your friend could serve on a revocation sentence would be 30 months unless he stipulated otherwise as part of his plea deal, in which case he should already know the answer to your question.
The best way to answer your question is to have your friend call his former lawyer and ask for that lawyer's advice. The attorney should still have your friends file and be able to answer these types of questions for no charge.
Also my answer assumes that he doesn't have any other probation, pending charges, etc., etc. I'm guessing that if your friend is on probation for Attempted Assault II and thinking about absconding then it's pretty likely that he either is or will be involved in other crimes and therefore facing jail time beyond this particular case.
This post is offered as general information and is not intended as legal advice. This information does not in of itself create any attorney-client relationship.