The answer to your question is heavily situational. Variables which could effect how much jail you can expect to receive which are not spelled out in your question are:
1. Who is the judge?
2. Who is the prosecutor?
3. How bad are the facts of the underlying case (yes you were convicted of those two crimes but what did the complaint and any evidence introduced in court indicate really happened)?
4. Were there any official or unofficial read-ins?
5. Who is your probation agent?
6. Do you have unique circumstances that objectively make probation a poor option for you?
7. What is the court likely to believe is your real motive for rejecting probation (despite whatever you may tell them)?
8. You had a bail jumping conviction (which suggests an inability to follow rules) in this case. How closely related to the underlying case was the bail jumping behavior? (i.e. did you violate a no contact with the victim (bad) or you failed to update your address with the court within the time limits (not so bad))
9. How soon after the sentencing are you trying to refuse probation? (The judge almost certainly believed probation is appropriate - you are telling him he is wrong; how soon after he made his decision are you telling him he is wrong? Also, if the original sentencing was a long time ago the judge will likely rely more on courtroom minutes and other notes in the court file to refresh his memory. The notes, if relevant due to the case being unexceptional and the original sentencing hearing being a while ago, might be helpful or negative in influencing the judge's opinion of you.)
10. What was your sentencing argument (both what you said and what your attonrey said)? Contradicting your sentencing argument might hurt your argument in the revocation sentencing hearing.
11. Who would you have as your attorney to make your arguments? (With many judges, relationships and reputation matter.)
As Attorney Cotton and I indicated in response to your first question, you really should get an attorney before making any decision on what to do (and maybe as important, how and when to do it) with this case. Good luck.