Paragraph 4 of your lengthy question indicates that you are represented by a public defender who must remain the sole source of information regarding your case. Pose your question to your public defender. He or she can provide you with all the guidance necessary. Good luck.
ARD is in the sole discretion of the district attorney. The odds of being accepted into the program depend largely on the county the case is in.
This answer is generally how a lawyer would go about handling a termination of probation hearing. It is not a guarantee that a Court will terminate your probation and does not create a attorney/client relationship between us.
It is really up to the DA's discretion. A big would be how this is approached. If the person is trying to deal with issues with alcohol---they have a better shot. However, if the person believes alcohol is not an issue, they will likely not be getting any breaks.
This is not intended as individual legal advice and there is no attorney client relationship established by this answer. It is advisable that you seek individualized legal assistance. This is not a substitute for hiring an attorney.