You're right, nobody can give you an absolute answer. However, you do have some good mitigating factors that a judge can hang his/her hat on if they wish. Normally a VOP results in a resentencing to jail, however, in your case, if you can show some mitigating factors for being intoxicated (such as you had a designated driver who got loaded and you had to drive, or something like that if its true) then you may have a chance.
Speak to a good defense lawyer before going before a judge.
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