Does this just change by insurance provider, or is there any rule of thumb I can use to guess?
Sorry but that is like asking your insurance agent how much a lawyer will charge for a divorce. But, because I am both, an attorney and an insurance agent (but not in your state), I will just tell you that it depends on each insurance company. Some companies will drop your coverage all together or not insure you at all. Others will increase your rate, but each company will be different. Call around to different insurance agencies. Some specialize in your type of situation and will have a pretty good rate. They will all run your driving record so there is no reason to hide it from them but I wouldn't run and tell my current carrierif I were you. Good luck!
Without a doubt, your best resource in answering hat question is your agent. Keep in mind that it takes a bit of time for a conviction to cross you record and it may take a little time for the insurance company to check your history so you may get a reprieve on an immediate rate increase.
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